By The Athletic MLB Staff
Jun 6, 2024
The Houston Astros lost two pitchers for the season, but picked up a series win against the St. Louis Cardinals to start a critical month.
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Power rankings: Houston Astros are No. 14
In this week’s power rankings, we look at potential first-time All-Star candidates around the league. (Record as of Tuesday)
Record: 27-34
Last Power Ranking: T-12
First-time All-Star candidate: SS Jeremy Peña
If you believe the nerd numbers, Peña’s defense is slumping a bit. The nerd numbers also love Peña’s overall value, though, and they always have. He’s still one of the more underrated players in the league, especially when he’s hitting .300 or close to it.
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It’s a tough time to be an American League All-Star at shortstop, though, with Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr. and Anthony Volpe all having tremendous starts to 2024. The Rangers don’t have a ton of obvious All-Stars at the moment (see blurb above), and they might need Corey Seager to be their representative. The odds are very much against Peña. He’ll get there one of these seasons, but it’ll take a lot of June mashing for 2024 to be the year. — Grant Brisbee
The latest hits
ICYMI, our national writers weighed in with what they are hearing and seeing
Jim Bowden on the Astros’ deadline needs
On Monday, our resident ex-GM organized the 30 teams into trade deadline tiers: buyers, sellers and those in between. He slotted the Astros with the buyers.
The Astros have been the most disappointing team in MLB and their streak of seven consecutive years in the postseason is at risk. But I still believe in this team, as long as it can get the starting pitching figured out. The Astros’ lineup remains solid with a strong core of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. They are still an above-average defensive team. However, first baseman José Abreu, who recently returned after a demotion to the minors, is in serious decline, and their other first baseman, Jon Singleton, profiles more as a role player. Josh Hader has converted eight of nine save opportunities and settled in after a rough start. Starting pitching has been the main problem as the trio of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and J.P. France have combined to go 4-13 with an ERA north of 6.35. Take those starts away and the Astros would be at or near the top of the division. Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Ronel Blanco have been solid, but the injuries to Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. and José Urquidy have taken a toll and there’s no promise of when any of them will be back.
Early trade deadline needs: The Astros are targeting a good starting pitcher, a first base bat and a reliever. This year they’re going to have to trade their way to the playoffs, especially in the starting pitching department.
Early MLB All-Star Game picks
With voting opening on Wednesday, Bowden took an early look at the American League All-Star team. He projects three Astros making the cut, with two as starters.
Second base
Jose Altuve (starter)
(1.6 WAR, 9 HR, 35 R, 8 SB, 127 OPS+)
Altuve has batted .291/.343/.446 and leads all AL second basem*n in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He remains the face of the Astros franchise and solidified that standing in February, when he signed a five-year, $125 million contract extension through 2029. Altuve will become a nine-time All-Star if he’s selected this year.
Jose Altuve has looked like a nine-time All-Star this season. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)
Right field
Kyle Tucker
(3.6 WAR, 19 HR, 40 RBI, 179 OPS+)
I had a difficult time choosing between Juan Soto and Tucker for the starting right fielder, and the way I would prefer to solve it would be to start both of them on the outfield corners, with Tucker in right and Soto in left. One could argue Tucker should start over Soto in right because he’s a better defender, leads Soto in home runs and has 10 stolen bases in as many attempts. However, I went with Soto because of the overwhelming impact he’s had on the Yankees.
Designated hitter
Yordan Alvarez (starter)
(1.9 WAR, 12 HR, 28 RBI, 145 OPS+)
Alvarez has been hot after a cold start to the season and has raised his OPS to .856. He has 12 homers and 28 RBIs. He might not have the best numbers to date, but his career success leads me to believe that by the All-Star break, he’ll be leading AL designated hitters in most categories.
Viral moment of the week
Looking like an All-Star already#VoteDubón x #VoteStros pic.twitter.com/0blWPbekDw
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 5, 2024
Starting at his sixth different position of the season, reigning American League utility Gold Glover Mauricio Dubón showed his prowess.
Baseball beat
Our beat writer Chandler Rome picked out what you need to know
Arms take a hit
José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are having elbow surgery, thinning a rotation that can’t absorb any additional injuries.
What next?
Four thoughts on the future of Houston’s pitching staff in the wake of Javier and Urquidy’s surgeries.
Cristian Javier is now shelved until July 2025 at the earliest. (Logan Riely / Getty Images)
Needed breakthroughs
Spencer Arrighetti and Hunter Brown’s importance is heightened without Urquidy and Javier. Both young right-handers are staging breakthroughs.
Doubling down
General manager Dana Brown doubled down on his comments from last month, reiterating, “I don’t see any scenario where we’re sellers” at the trade deadline.
Best hitter bruised
Kyle Tucker took a nasty foul ball off his shin on Tuesday and his status is in question for the weekend.
Poor pitching, poorer luck
Setup man Ryan Pressly’s ERA is over 5 and his WHIP is a smidge over 1.5. Why some bad luck may be to blame.
Did you catch this?
Dana Brown’s insistence that he will buy at the trade deadline is unsurprising — what else is he going to say publicly? — but his team must take advantage of a soft schedule this month to make it more realistic.
Before Monday’s game, FanGraphs gave Houston just a 19.9 percent chance to win the American League West, but with 34.1 percent odds to sneak into the expanded postseason. Six American League teams had better playoff odds than the Astros. Only six teams qualify.
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“I’ve seen teams blow leads from five games up to seven games up in September. In Atlanta when we won the World Series, we didn’t get to .500 until game 100,” Brown said. “I don’t foresee us being sellers at all. We’re going to grind it out. I think we’re going to get back to .500 before people know it and we’ll be back in the race.”
Doing so must start this month, perhaps the easiest Houston has encountered all season. Seventeen of its games in June are against teams that entered Monday under .500. Nine are against the Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox, three of the worst clubs in the sport. Five off days during the month should offer enough reprieve for any fatigue, too.
Whether Brown will publicly acknowledge it or not, how his club plays this month may determine how drastic he acts at the trade deadline.
Dana Brown is insistent his team is going to be a buyer come the trade deadline. (Matt York / Associated Press)
Owner Jim Crane has long been loath to sell — and his influence in this decision-making can’t be overlooked — but a subpar June may leave little choice but to consider it. Houston has a barren farm system that it can restock by making any of Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly or Justin Verlander available to contending teams.
“We would have to really fall apart for that to happen,” Brown said when asked whether he would have to contemplate selling if the team can’t climb back to .500 by the deadline.
“The pitching would have to be struggling. The hitters would have to be struggling. If there’s any sign of hope, I can’t see us doing it,” Brown said of a team that entered Monday 5-13 in one-run games.
“Right now, even when you’re losing and the players are still playing well and you’re losing one-run games, two-run games, at some point you feel like it’s going to turn around. I don’t feel like there’s any scenario where we’re going to be sellers. The team is too good.”
Field notes
And now a quick word from the comment section.
Craig is correct. The Astros have lost two World Series to teams that felt left for dead — the 2019 Washington Nationals that started 19-31 and the 2021 Atlanta Braves, who didn’t reach .500 until Aug. 5. Dana Brown witnessed that entire Atlanta run firsthand as the club’s scouting director, perhaps influencing some of his recent comments.
(Top photo of José Urquidy: Hector Vivas / Getty Images)
